Hér er spá tímaritsins Economist fyrir íslenska hagkerfið árið 2009 undir yfirskriftinni Iceland faces the worst of times.

Þar segir að tekjur margra Íslendinga hafi þegar dregist saman um fjórðung.

Og að þjóðarframleiðsla muni dragast saman um 12 prósent á árinu en atvinnuleysi geti farið upp í 10 prósent.

Um skuldir ríkisins segir Economist að þær muni vaxa upp í 109 prósent af þjóðarframleiðslu á árinu sem þýði mikinn niðurskurð hjá ríkinu og/eða skattahækkanir:

„Gross government debt is forecast by the IMF to increase from 29% of GDP at the end of 2007 to 109% of GDP in 2009. Apart from the widening deficit, the increase in debt will result from three main causes: first, the recapitalisation of the failed commercial banks now under public ownership will cost around Ikr385bn, or 25% of GDP; second, the costs of recapitalising the Central Bank will be close to 10% of GDP; and third, meeting the extensive obligations of the failed banks (that is, compensating depositors and other creditors) will cost around 47% of GDP. A sizeable portion of this should, however, be recovered over the coming years as the banks’ assets are sold. Nevertheless, there will a large debt-servicing burden on the central government that will have to be met by extensive cuts in government spending or through higher taxes.„